WASHINGTON, DC - As we approach the 16 month anniversary of the signing of the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States and China went into effect, the results are being interpreted in many ways.

For the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), they say China missed the 2020 target by $6 billion and is 22 percent below the target through the first four months of 2021, but optimistically offer that purchases are coming on strong.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) has been pessimistic since the signing of the agreement and reports the Chinese missed the 2020 mark, for total imports, by 42 percent. Specifically for agriculture, however, the private think-tank also points to strong recent sales that have helped the country achieve 87 percent of the 2021 year-to-date target.

Veronica Nigh, AFBF Economist suggests that given what has happened so far in 2021 in terms of sizable purchase commitments of new crop commodities expected to ship in the latter months of 2021 and current commodity prices, "there is a real chance that the 2021 Phase One commitment level might be reached."

If realized, the $40.4 billion in exports to China would blow past the $27.2 billion records for exports of agricultural products last year.
(SOURCE: All Ag News)