WASHINGTON, DC – “Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally” explained researchers from USDA’s World Ag Outlook Board (WAOB) in their March World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on Wednesday.
Specifically, the domestic supply and demand picture for wheat is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks.
Supplies are lower for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, developing at a slower-than-expected pace. Exports are reduced 10 million bushels, down to 800 million, on weaker than expected sales and shipments for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW).
Projected ending stocks are raised 5 million bushels to 653 million but are still 23 percent lower than last year leading USDA to increased the season-average farm price (SAFP) 20¢ per bushel to $7.50 for cash and futures prices the remainder of this marketing year (MY). Despite the recent sharp increases in futures and cash prices, a significant majority of U.S. wheat has already been marketed this season, limiting the increase in prices.
The domestic corn supply and use outlook are for increased food, seed, and industrial use, larger exports, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Researchers have increased the expectation for corn exports (up by 75 million bushels) to 2.5 billion, reflecting expectations of sharply lower exports from Ukraine and the projected season-average farm price 20¢ higher to $5.65 per bushel.
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for this marketing year include higher exports and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Exports are raised 40 million bushels to 2.09 billion with lower production and reduced exports for South America while ending stocks are projected at 285 million bushels, down 40 million from last month.
The expected season-average soybean price is forecast at $13.25 per bushel, up 25¢ per bushel; the soymeal price is forecast at $420 per short ton, up $10; and, the soyoil price sits at 68¢ per pound, up 2¢.
Finally, USDA expects the cotton supply and demand to remain unchanged from last month, with expected price forecasts unchanged at 90¢ per pound.
(SOURCE: All Ag News)
